Macroeconomic Modelling, Forecasting and Policy Analysis
Our world-class economists at the Melbourne Institute conduct in-depth analysis of domestic and international fiscal, monetary and macro-prudential policies, evaluating their impact on the state of the Australian economy.
Our researchers have high-level skills in applied macroeconomic analysis, especially in the application of macroeconometric techniques and computational macroeconomic methodologies to economic data.
We are trusted experts in macroeconomic analysis which has led to a longstanding industry partnership with Westpac, and the annual convening of academics, policy-makers and researchers from central banks and government treasuries in an engaged discussion on the state of the Australian economy at the Melbourne Institute Macroeconomic Policy Meeting.
We use quantitative analysis to explore a range of macroeconomic issues, taking an economy-wide perspective to examine economic trends and movements. Our research focuses on economic modelling of linkages in the economy, analysing business cycles and investigating the impact of international and domestic shocks on key macroeconomic aggregates like, GDP growth, the inflation rate and the unemployment rate. Attention is also paid to related aspects of the economic health of the nation (such as the labour share of national income and housing affordability).
CASiE: A survey of Consumer Attitudes, Sentiments and Expectations in Australia
45 years of tracking the state of the economy through booms and busts
We are trusted experts in the macroeconomic analysis of CASiE, providing monthly reports interpreting Australian consumers’ signals about their perceptions of the state of the economy including prospects for employment, expectations of price changes, house prices and changes in the mortgage rates. This work is a longstanding collaboration with Westpac and supported by numerous subscribers. The macro team have also conducted extensive research using CASiE.
Macro analysis of the State of the Australian Economy
We monitor the state of the Australian economy and forecasts key macroeconomic variables. Recognising that the national accounts are only available on a quarterly basis and released with a 3-month lag (for example, the March quarter national accounts are released in June), we provide NowCasts for GDP, on a monthly basis, derived from timely monthly information.
Our annual review of the Australian economy is published in the March Issue of the Australian Economic Review each year. The Review, pays attention to the fact that Australia is subjected to international shocks (especially via changes in the terms of trade), and domestic macroeconomic policy shocks. The impacts of these shocks on consumption and employment and their implications for household financial conditions are analysed and risks noted.
We have a special interest in understanding how macro policies (monetary, fiscal and macro-prudential) affects different demographic groups. For example, a recent Report examined how the effect of inflationary pressures and rate hikes have impacted on renters, mortgagors and outright owners differently.
Program Coordinator: Professor Guay Lim
Partnerships and Funding
This program is funded through grants and research contracts provided by a variety of sources, including the ARC, the Reserve Bank of Australia and Westpac.