Inflation expectations fell back slightly in August, wage expectations also decline

The August 2022 Survey of Consumer Inflationary and Wage Expectations was released at 11am AEST, Thursday, 11 August 2022.

The expected inflation rate (30-per-cent trimmed mean measure) fell by 0.4 percentage points in August to 5.9 per cent. Total pay is expected to grow by 0.8 per cent over the next 12 months.

Notwithstanding a second consecutive month of lower trimmed mean inflation expectations, year-ahead inflation expectations remain elevated, with a large proportion of consumers also expecting higher prices in the next 12 months. Both the trimmed mean and weighted inflation expectation measures are also substantially higher than in August 2021. Despite elevated inflation expectations, wage expectations fell substantially in August, thereby providing little indication, thus far, of a wage-price spiral.

The September 2022 Survey of Consumer Inflationary and Wage Expectations will be released at 11am AEST, Thursday, 15 September 2022.

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The Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflationary Expectations measures are designed to represent the average householder’s expected rate of consumer price changes over the coming 12 months. Further information can be found here.

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A/Prof Sam Tsiaplias

stsiaplias@unimelb.edu.au

03 9035 3353