Beliefs about inflation significantly outpacing beliefs about future wages

The November 2022 Survey of Consumer Inflationary and Wage Expectations was released at 11am AEDT, Thursday, 10 November 2022.

The expected inflation rate (30-per-cent trimmed mean measure) rose by 0.6 percentage points in November to 6.0 per cent. Total pay (30-per-cent trimmed mean) is expected to grow by 1.0 per cent over the next 12 months.

Following four months of moderation, trimmed mean inflation expectations increased significantly in November, possibly reflecting recent data on official inflation. Uncertainty about inflation also appears to have increased, with a decline in the proportion of consumers expecting higher inflation, and an increase in the proportion reporting ‘don’t know’ for year-ahead inflation. Wage expectations continue to be weak, with beliefs about inflation significantly outpacing beliefs about future wages.

The December 2022 Survey of Consumer Inflationary and Wage Expectations will be released at 11am AEDT, Thursday, 15 December 2022.

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The Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflationary Expectations measures are designed to represent the average householder’s expected rate of consumer price changes over the coming 12 months. Further information can be found here.

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A/Prof Sam Tsiaplias

stsiaplias@unimelb.edu.au

03 9035 3353