Ha Nguyen, Telethon Kids Institute - In the eye of the storm

Title: In the eye of the storm: Quantifying the cascading impacts of cyclones

Abstract: Leveraging randomly timed exposure to local cyclones as natural experiments, this study presents the first comprehensive causal analysis of cyclone impacts on Australian individuals' socio-economic wellbeing. Utilizing two decades of longitudinal data from the HILDA survey matched with historical cyclone records, individual fixed effects models reveal statistically significant and substantial increases in reported home damage. Planned relocation intentions and actual migration moderately rise, particularly with higher severity and proximity. Notably, while income, health, and psychological personality traits remain unaffected, financial hardship slightly increases, and life satisfaction significantly declines. Heterogeneity analysis identifies key factors influencing these impacts, including gender, age, pre-existing homeownership, income, insurance coverage, rural/urban and community cyclone history. Further, we explore coping mechanisms, finding that migration and insurance acquisition are prevalent, with the latter demonstrably mitigating future repair costs. Additionally, cyclone-induced home damage is identified as a primary driver of observed migration patterns. These findings illuminate the broad and often nuanced impacts of cyclones beyond immediate physical destruction, underscoring the need for targeted support and resilience-building strategies in vulnerable groups and regions.

Presenter: Ha Nguyen, Telethon Kids Institute

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