This research program conducts quantitative analysis on a range of macroeconomic issues, taking an aggregate economy-wide perspective to examine trends and movements in the Australian economy.
Research focuses on economic modelling of linkages in the economy, analysing business cycles and investigating various aspects of the economic health of the nation, such as interest and exchange rates.
The program evaluates domestic and international fiscal and monetary policies, and undertakes research exploring the impacts of these policies on the state of the economy.
Current research topics include:
- Macroeconomic effects of global uncertainty
- Housing, mortgages and policy (including macroprudential policy)
- Expectations and forecasting
- Growth, employment and business cycles, and
- Modelling the Australian economy.
Data and methodology
The Macroeconomics program creates and manages the CASiE Survey, a monthly telephone survey of Australian households, and produces several summary measures of the state of the Australian economy.
The program also applies sampling methodology to create a Monthly Inflation Gauge that complements the quarterly Consumer Price Index produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
The team has expertise in indicator analysis and produces a Leading Indicator of Economic Activity, as well as a Leading Indicator of Shareholder Confidence.
The Macroeconomics program also analyses data from a range of Australian and international sources, and provides regular insights on the Australian economy.
Expert commentary on the state of the Australian economy is published in both the Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends and the Australian Economic Review.
All program members have high-level skills in applied macroeconomic analysis, especially in the application of macroeconometric techniques and computational macroeconomic methodologies to economic data.
The Macroeconomics program publishes a series of widely referenced macroeconomic reports, which examine trends and movements in statistical measures such as inflation, consumer sentiment, shareholder confidence and unemployment.
The Macroeconomics program hosts the annual Melbourne Institute Macroeconomic Policy Meetings, with sponsorship from the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Australian and New Zealand Treasuries.
The Policy Meetings bring together academics, policy-makers and researchers from central banks and government treasuries. Highlights and papers from the Meetings are published in the Australian Economic Review.
The program offers research training and teaches a postgraduate elective covering state-of-the-art techniques that can be used to model the macro-economy and analyse relevant macroeconomic policies.
Professor Guay Lim
This program is funded through grants and research contracts provided by a variety of sources, including the ARC, the Reserve Bank of Australia, Westpac, Global Proxy Solicitation and the Victorian Auditor-General’s Office.