Tuition Increases and University Behavior: Theory and Evidence on Student Enrollment
Melbourne Institute Working Paper No. v2/25
Date: August 2025
Author(s):
Abstract
This paper considers the role universities play in determining their enrollment when faced with government regulated domestic tuition. Our theoretical framework posits that domestic student enrollment increase and international student enrollment decrease or remain unchanged when domestic tuition increases. Using 30 years of data, we find higher tuition increases domestic enrollment, mediated by an expectation that students may respond negatively to increased tuition. Universities shift enrollment toward higher-revenue fields. The results for international student enrollment is mixed, depending on the research intensity of the university.