Weak Australian economic growth likely to have continued in the June quarter.

The Melbourne Institute has lowered its nowcast for growth in the June quarter to 0.1 per cent (previously 0.2 per cent). This follows weak growth of 0.2 per cent in the March quarter and will result in year-ended growth declining to 1.5 per cent.

The outlook for the remainder of 2023 is bleak. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index anticipates that the weak output growth will extend into 2024. The Australian economy is likely to enter a per capita recession this year.

To date the labour market has been resilient, with the unemployment rate remaining low despite the weak output growth.

The decline in underlying inflation – which the RBA focuses on – in the June quarter was encouraging. However, it remains high and well above the RBA’s target. For inflation to moderate so as to be consistent with the RBA’s target in a timely way the weak output growth will have to be reflected in a softening in the labour market in the near term.

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The Melbourne Institute Nowcast of Australian GDP for the June quarter was released at 11am (AEDT), Thursday 27 July 2023. The next Nowcast will be released at 11am (AEDT), Thursday 24 August 2023.

The Melbourne Institute Nowcast of Australian GDP uses monthly information regarding labour market conditions, housing and business lending, retail sales, housing approvals, consumer expectations, trade conditions and commodity prices to gauge current economic conditions.

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Dr Tim Robinson


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  • Nowcast of Australian GDP & Dating the Business Cycle