Luke Chu, Victoria University of Wellington -Life-cycle Bias and Intergenerational Associations in Crime

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Melbourne Institute Seminar



Title: Life-cycle Bias and Intergenerational Associations in Crime

Abstract: Criminal behaviors exhibit a strong life-cycle pattern as most crimes are committed at young ages. There can be substantial life-cycle bias in the estimates for intergenerational association when short-run proxies are used for the long-run criminal behaviors. In this paper, we develop a novel methodology based on the generalized-error-in-variable (GEiV) model. We estimate life-cycle bias from a representative cohort and then correct the estimates for intergenerational association in crimes. We estimate the intergenerational elasticities between fathers and sons to be 0.8 for the likelihood of crimes and 0.5 for the number of crimes. The intergenerational elasticities between fathers and daughters appear to be stronger and around 1.0. The intergenerational elasticities between mothers and children are much weaker than those from fathers and only around 0.3. The estimated elasticities are stable across ages, birth cohorts, types of crimes, and either criminal charges or criminal convictions.

Presenter:  Luke Chu, Victoria University of Wellington

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