Claudio Labanca, Monash University - Welfare Programs and Crime Spillovers

Title:   Welfare Programs and Crime Spillovers (with David Jinkins and Elira Kuka)

Abstract: Research on the social safety net examines its effects on recipients and their families. We show that these effects extend beyond recipients’ families. Using a regression discontinuity design and administrative data, we study a Danish policy that cut welfare benefits for refugees, increasing crime among affected individuals. Linking refugees to neighbors, we find increased crime among non-Danish neighbors, with spillovers persisting even after direct effects stabilize. Accounting for these spillovers raises the marginal value of public funds by approximately 20%. We explore several mechanisms and find evidence consistent with peer effects in crime.

Presenter:  Claudio Labanca, Monash University

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