David Neumark - The Long-Run Effects of Minimum Wages and Other Anti-Poverty Policies on Disadvantaged Neighborhoods

Melbourne Institute Seminar

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Barbara Broadway

bhanel@unimelb.edu.au

NOTE THE UNUSUAL TIME OF THIS EVENT: Mon 28 Aug, 3.30pm

Title: The Long-Run Effects of Minimum Wages and Other Anti-Poverty Policies on Disadvantaged Neighborhoods

Abstract: We study the effects, over many decades, of minimum wages, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and welfare (and welfare reform) on disadvantaged neighborhoods. Using Census data, we identify tracts that are initially disadvantaged in terms of either a high share with low education, or a high share black. We then estimate the long-run effects of these alternative policies on key economic indicators of economic self-sufficiency – in particular, poverty and the receipt of public assistance. Our identification strategy largely relies on state-level and federal-level policy variation that has differential impacts on more- vs. less-advantaged tracts within a state, which allows us to flexibly allow for state-specific shocks correlated with policy changes.We fail to find evidence of beneficial long-run effects of minimum wages in disadvantaged areas. In the longer-run, employment effects are negative, and there is no evidence that higher minimum wages reduce poverty or lower the share of household on public assistance (and some weak evidence in the opposite direction). In contrast, we find evidence of longer-run beneficial effects of a more generous EITC. There is evidence that in the longer run the EITC increases employment and reduces poverty, and there is strong evidence that a higher EITC reduces the share of families on public assistance. Evidence on welfare is more mixed, with some evidence that more generous welfare benefits increase poverty and the share on public assistance in the longer run.

Presenter: David Neumark, University of California Irvine

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